Coronavirus Explained: What is the impact?

Coronavirus Explained: What is the impact?

Jeannie is still with me. So too is Jake Simon. Let’S start with Donald Trump’s travel ban that we’ve seen introduced that it’s going to affect huge numbers. Isn’T it let alone the practicalities of all of it? Well, it’s totally unprecedented to have travel restrictions in this way across the Atlantic. It has stunned the airlines they weren’t expecting this and that’s because of the numbers involved.

So let’s have a look at those. First of all, because the number of flights per day between Europe and the United States affected are 270, that’s seventy nine thousand nine hundred seats per day and remember this travel ban that President Trump is bringing in is lasting 30 days. So over that period, you’re talking about 1.4 million seats lost for the airlines who make money out of this, and the number of flights 5220 lost over that period.

Now the important thing is who’s affected and its people from the 26 Schengen countries, so those European countries that have a common travel area and that doesn’t then include the United Kingdom and Ireland and some Eastern European countries, including Croatia for instance. So you might say well, if you’re coming from the United Kingdom, that’s ok and it’s ok, for instance, for British Airways, which operates from United Kingdom, but that’s not so everyone’s uncertain.

They don’t know, what’s going to happen next and the airline’s particularly are badly affected. Their share prices have plummeted downwards. Yes, it caught the Europeans cold. I was listening to one French MP, who was said it just doesn’t work like that. You know. If I want to catch a flight, I will now get a train to London and then get a flight to New York, so all sorts of practicalities to work through.

Let me go straight to another question, though Simon from Karolina who’s been in touch. Ask I meant to go to Berlin next week, I’m scared of a the country being locked down and B being put into quarantine and not being allowed back into the UK. What should I actually do? You know I’ve had a number of other people asking me the exact same question. Berlin comes up quite often because it’s a popular destination.

Well, she can’t fly there, for instance, from the UK, there’s no problem about flying to Berlin. Yet but the worry is, as she says, you know: will my insurance work, my travel insurance if I’m trapped there for some reason, so that’s a concern, will I be able to get back? Will I be covered, but the other thing is for all travelers. You know it’s there, a point in going. There are attractions shut down now in Berlin.

You can’t go into the viewing area on the Reichstag, for instance. So if travelers are thinking, should I go because I might get trapped, I might be out of pocket they’re. Also thinking should I bother anyway and also thinks it’s so fluid. They can change so quickly as we’ve seen some and thank you really. Let’S talk about the markets, because we’ve seen extraordinary turmoil for days, it is inevitably hitting economies across the country.

Recession is being talked about pensions. All those sort of things rolled into into the pot in terms of consideration Jafar in Nigeria has asked how much impact would all have on the global economy if this emergency continues. That is exactly the question. That’S got the mark. It’S quite so anxious I mean what we’ve seen now is. The Bears are back. What do I mean by that stock markets are down by about 20 percent from their recent peak or more than that in some cases, and you may think so what? But, as you mentioned, their pensions, even people who don’t invest directly in the stock markets, are going to be affected by this.

Their pension funds may be suffering, and the big question is how long, how far, how wide? How deep is the economic impact of this going to be, and there is a bit of a trade-off going on here? We had President Trump, of course talking about the fact. This wasn’t a financial crisis, but also talking about shutting down those flights. Now, on the one hand, you’ve got measures which are gauged in perhaps slowed down the human spread, but that could deepen the economic impact in the short term.

If we’re not travelling going out shops and spending and the crucial thing, if governments and central banks aren’t on hand to sort of patch up the damage that could actually extent in terms of the markets, after all, we’ve seen over the last few days, other markets already Factoring in this going on for considerable amount of time or is likely to be further huge volatility that we’ve seen this volatility isn’t going to end by any means, I mean what we’ve seen in recent days is a shift from this expectation.

It was going to be a very short sharp shock to actually this could carry on for some months, but they’re still talking about months. But the big concern is what, if it goes on even longer, what if there isn’t that action from central banks and governments, which means that businesses that can’t pay the bills today don’t go under and don’t start cutting jobs. But the good news – and we have to remember this – is that everyone out there is saying all the analysts have spoken to us saying the moment.

We get assigned that clarity that perhaps things are getting better, that the both the spread and the impact of being contained markets could spring back incredibly rapidly. So we shouldn’t get too disheartened. Take a quick twin thought in terms of mortality rates around the world. Why do they differ and what sort of figures are you seeing in terms of the people who catch coronavirus and the amount of hospitalization that is required, which obviously puts a huge pressure on the health systems? So mortality rates will only know the true mortality rate? How many people have died once this outbreaks over because of the iceberg effects, so there will be people who are infected, that we just don’t know about so it’s very hard to do the maths and get an accurate figure.

At the moment, though, their rates vary between countries, perhaps because of differences in the way people are assessing it and also how people are accessing care and whether the data collection and the outcomes are known for the patients at the time. The big concern: it’s not just about death rates, though it’s about who gets sick and who needs to go to hospital. So it comes back to those efforts to try and slow spread and not have one sharp peak that exceeds healthcare capacities, but try and spread it out for a bit longer, just so that people who can get care can actually access it.

Which brings me to my final question to you Jay, because of course, when you look at all the different strands, all the spread of this, the number of cases, the number of countries – it’s it’s obviously alarming, but it’s worth underlining. Isn’T it that the majority of people who catch coronavirus do recover? It’S really important and it needs to be a balanced message. So we think 80 % of those who are infected we’ll get a mild illness, which is great news.

But we need to come together and remember that there are other people who may get more severe disease and we all need to do everything to protect those people and stop them from getting our infections Jake thanks very much well times up. Sorry, if we didn’t get to your questions, many of the answers, though, are on the BBC website and it’s been an information-rich 25 minutes. I hope you found it useful.